Following Iran’s weakening after Israel’s military operations since October 2024 and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, Israeli leaders now see an opportunity to consolidate regional dominance. Analysts cited in the report suggest that Israel’s policymakers increasingly view Turkey as the next major obstacle to their ambitions, given Ankara’s growing influence in post-Assad Syria and its opposition to Israeli expansionism.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett described Turkey as a new Iran, accusing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of seeking to encircle Israel. Turkish analysts argue that Israel is developing a long-term strategy similar to its decades-long approach toward Iran. They note that Israel’s regional ambitions have expanded across Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Qatar, and Yemen, while Turkey perceives these actions as threats to broader regional stability.

Experts warn that direct confrontation between Israel and Turkey could emerge in Syria or the Mediterranean. However, Israel’s ability to act against Turkey is constrained by Ankara’s NATO membership and U.S. strategic interests. The rise of a Turkey–Egypt–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan alignment could further limit Israel’s regional dominance.

The United Arab Emirates and Israel have formed a joint defense fund aimed at enhancing their military capabilities and jointly acquiring advanced defense equipment and technology. The initiative, confirmed by Middle East Eye citing current and former U.S. officials, was finalized during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE amid the ongoing Iran war. The fund will support joint arms purchases and may finance upgrades to Israel’s air defense systems, with both countries focusing on drone interception and air defense technologies.

According to sources, the fund involves significant financial commitments and extends beyond air defense systems. Analysts note that Israel brings technological expertise while the UAE provides financial resources. The move comes as U.S. financial support for Israel faces growing domestic scrutiny, prompting Israel to diversify its funding sources. Experts describe the partnership as the closest cooperation ever between Israel and an Arab nation.

The UAE’s independent approach contrasts with Saudi Arabia’s regional alliances. Observers suggest that as tensions with Iran deepen, Abu Dhabi sees its relationship with Israel as a strategic counterbalance in regional security.

US President Donald Trump issued a new warning to Iran on Sunday, urging Tehran to act quickly to end the ongoing conflict. In a message on his Truth Social platform, Trump said time was running out for Iran and that failure to act would leave it with nothing. The warning came as fighting persisted despite a ceasefire declared on April 8 following major US and Israeli attacks that began on February 28.

In Lebanon, Israeli missile strikes killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his 17-year-old daughter, while additional attacks in the south left five people dead, including two children. The Lebanese health ministry reported at least 2,900 deaths since the war began, with more than 400 killed after the ceasefire. In Gaza, five people were killed in Israeli attacks, bringing the death toll since October’s ceasefire to at least 871. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones entering from Iraq, and a drone strike near Abu Dhabi’s Barakah nuclear plant caused a fire but no casualties.

Iranian media said Washington had offered no concessions in response to Tehran’s peace proposals, while Pakistan continued mediating talks between Iran and the United States.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan to discuss the stalled United States–Iran nuclear negotiations, ongoing regional tensions, and the broader situation in the Middle East. The discussion focused on maintaining regional stability and exploring ways to reduce escalating tensions.

Diplomatic sources indicated that the talks between the United States and Iran have effectively reached a standstill in recent times. Against this backdrop, both foreign ministers exchanged views on measures to preserve stability in the region. Turkey has been actively working behind the scenes to help end ongoing conflicts while also strengthening security along its border with Iran.

Ankara fears that further deterioration of the situation could trigger a large-scale refugee influx across the border. Observers note that Turkey’s diplomatic engagement amid rising instability in the Middle East could play a significant role in maintaining regional balance.

Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has been accused of entering the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and provoking Jewish settlers. The incident drew strong condemnation from Qatar, which also protested against Israeli settlers’ provocative actions and restrictions on access to the mosque.

According to the Qatar News Agency, the Qatari Foreign Ministry described Ben-Gvir’s move as an unacceptable provocation to millions of Muslims worldwide. The ministry said the act constituted a grave violation of international law and humanitarian law. Qatar warned that the move represented a dangerous attempt to alter the historical and legal status of occupied Jerusalem, emphasizing that such unilateral measures are null and void under international law.

The Qatari Foreign Ministry called on the international community to compel Israel to halt ongoing violations against Palestinians and to comply with international resolutions.

Gulf countries are increasingly turning to Turkey to strengthen their air defense systems as regional tensions with Iran escalate. The shift comes as U.S. defense companies struggle to meet arms and equipment demands, prompting Arab states to seek alternative suppliers. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks on American bases, countries such as Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have faced heightened security risks.

Despite possessing advanced defense systems, these nations have struggled to counter Iran’s ballistic missiles and long-range drones, which can evade radar detection. In response, several Gulf states have initiated talks and agreements with Ankara to acquire Turkish-made weapons and defense systems. Kuwait has signed a protocol with Turkey to purchase Bayraktar Akinci drones and Hisar air defense systems, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar have reportedly agreed to buy Korkut 100/25 systems.

The growing Gulf presence at Turkey’s recent SAHA Expo defense exhibition, including active participation from Iraq, underscores the region’s expanding defense cooperation with Ankara.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the United Arab Emirates’ President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held a telephone conversation to strengthen security and stability in the Middle East. The discussion took place as part of ongoing efforts to enhance coordination between the two Gulf nations.

According to the Saudi Press Agency, the leaders reviewed recent regional developments and exchanged views on joint initiatives aimed at reinforcing peace and stability. The report also noted that the two sides discussed various aspects of bilateral cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The conversation underscores the continuing collaboration between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in addressing regional challenges and maintaining strategic alignment on key security issues.

A recent wave of Iranian attacks has severely damaged at least 228 U.S. military facilities and equipment across Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, according to satellite analysis cited by The Washington Post. The strikes have shaken long-held assumptions among Gulf monarchies that American protection guarantees their safety. The incidents revealed that even U.S. bases are not immune to Iranian retaliation, undermining the credibility of Washington’s regional defense umbrella.

The crisis has triggered deep unease among Gulf rulers and business elites, who now question the value of hosting extensive U.S. military infrastructure. Iran’s strategy of deterrence through pain has proven effective in exposing vulnerabilities in the American-led security system. The attacks have also disrupted maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz, raising global energy market fears and driving up insurance and defense costs. Dubai, once a symbol of stability, is now facing economic anxiety as tourism, investment, and logistics sectors feel the strain.

Analysts note that Gulf states are diversifying diplomatic ties, engaging with China, Russia, and Iran to reduce overreliance on Washington. The region’s new message is clear: friendship with the U.S. will continue, but blind allegiance is over.

A commentary published on May 12, 2026, argues that Pakistan’s ongoing mediation efforts to end the Middle East conflict are unlikely to bring lasting peace or stability. The article claims Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs continued conflict to maintain power and avoid imprisonment in a corruption case, while U.S. President Donald Trump relies on Netanyahu’s support to protect his own political position. It suggests that both leaders are using the conflict to serve personal and political interests rather than pursuing genuine peace.

The piece further contends that Gulf states have realized the risks of aligning too closely with the United States, citing a Saudi official’s remarks about Washington’s lack of support during an Iranian attack. It asserts that the root of the region’s instability lies in Zionist ideology and historical injustices against Palestinians. The author argues that transforming Israel into a normal, non-racial state could have prevented decades of war and displacement.

The commentary concludes that Netanyahu’s focus on prolonging war and undermining democratic institutions threatens both Israeli democracy and regional peace, calling for addressing these leadership issues at their roots.

Former Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani has accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of exploiting the ongoing Iran war to reshape the Middle East and advance a long-term plan for a 'Greater Israel.' In an interview with Al Jazeera’s program 'Al Muqabala,' he said the conflict was not accidental and claimed Netanyahu had long sought to draw the United States into confrontation with Tehran since the 1990s, convincing Washington that the war would be short and lead to Iran’s regime collapse.

Sheikh Hamad criticized overreliance on U.S. military power and said a diplomatic initiative led by Oman earlier this year could have prevented the crisis. He warned that the most dangerous outcome of the war is the Hormuz Strait crisis, as Iran now treats the waterway as sovereign territory and uses it as a weapon, posing a major threat to the global economy. He also alleged that Iran’s attacks on Gulf infrastructure under the guise of targeting U.S. bases have cost Tehran regional support.

He proposed forming a 'Gulf NATO' with Saudi Arabia as its backbone and urged regional cooperation with Turkey and Pakistan. Sheikh Hamad also condemned Israeli actions in Gaza as a moral and political disaster and praised Saudi Arabia’s refusal to normalize ties with Israel without a clear Palestinian statehood commitment.

The Middle East conflict intensified as U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to Washington’s proposal for ending the war, calling it “completely unacceptable.” Iran had earlier sent its reply through Pakistani mediators, according to state media. Meanwhile, Trump is expected to pressure Chinese President Xi Jinping on the Iran issue during an upcoming visit to Beijing.

In Europe, the United Kingdom and France announced a multinational defense ministers’ meeting on Tuesday to discuss military planning for securing commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran warned both countries that any deployment of warships in the area would face an “immediate and severe response.” Drone attacks also struck several targets in the Gulf region, including a cargo ship traveling from Abu Dhabi to Qatar, though no casualties were reported.

Separately, Iran released Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi on medical bail amid growing health concerns. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the war cannot be considered over until Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles are removed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any attack on Iranian tankers would trigger retaliation against U.S. facilities in the region.

Three large crude oil tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz with their location trackers turned off to avoid potential Iranian attacks, according to data from Kepler and LSEG cited by Reuters on Monday. The vessels, named Agios Fanourios One, Kiara M, and Basra Energy, each carried about two million barrels of crude oil. Agios Fanourios One, loaded in Iraq’s Basra on April 17, is heading toward Vietnam after two failed attempts to cross earlier. Kiara M, flying the San Marino flag and operated by a Shanghai-based company, has not yet confirmed its unloading destination. The Panama-flagged Basra Energy departed Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC Zirku terminal on May 1 and discharged its cargo at Fujairah port in the UAE last Friday.

The report notes that ongoing conflict and instability in the Middle East have severely disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Amid heightened tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States, oil exporters and shipowners are increasingly operating “in the dark” by disabling tracking systems to reduce the risk of targeted attacks.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey have launched a joint initiative to develop the fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet, aiming to strengthen their air forces and reduce reliance on Western suppliers. The partnership seeks to enhance local defense industries and enable Saudi Arabia to build its own aerospace sector. Turkey expects the collaboration to secure funding and credibility for its advanced technologies, potentially altering the current balance of air power in the Middle East. The project is viewed as a challenge to Israel’s air superiority.

Reports of Saudi financial support for the KAAN program and interest in purchasing the aircraft have caused unease in Washington, especially after a 2025 agreement to supply F-35 jets to Riyadh. U.S. officials expressed disappointment over Saudi interest in alternative advanced aircraft. The move reflects a broader regional trend of diversifying defense partnerships as Middle Eastern nations seek suppliers offering technology transfer and fewer restrictions.

Analysts note that the U.S. faces a strategic dilemma as its reliability as a security guarantor is increasingly questioned. A successful Saudi-Turkish partnership could modernize Riyadh’s air fleet and reshape the region’s defense landscape, reducing U.S. dominance in the arms market.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam met Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara for the first time in over a year, aiming to restore bilateral relations and cooperation. The meeting took place against the backdrop of regional conflict, Israeli military operations in Lebanon, and Israel’s continued presence in southern Syria. The main agenda focused on border and security concerns, particularly the long-standing issues of drug and arms smuggling between the two countries.

Syrian authorities have recently conducted several operations to destroy tunnels allegedly used for arms trafficking into Lebanon and arrested multiple suspects. The government also reported detaining members of a ‘Hezbollah cell’ accused of plotting attacks against the Syrian government, as well as others preparing rocket strikes on Israel. Both Syria and Lebanon now share a common stance on controlling Hezbollah’s activities.

Beyond security, the leaders discussed trade, economic cooperation, and prisoner exchanges. The talks also addressed the repatriation of Syrian refugees from Lebanon, where over one million displaced Syrians still reside despite many returning home since the war.

A total of 1,600 commercial ships remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after the suspension of the US-led military operation 'Project Freedom', announced by Donald Trump. The mission, intended to provide a secure passage for vessels through the strategic waterway, lasted only 48 hours before being halted. During that time, only two ships managed to pass safely, leaving thousands of sailors and shipping companies in renewed uncertainty.

Shipping executives said confidence will not return without a verified peace agreement. Los Angeles port director Gene Seroka stated that no company is willing to risk its cargo or crew despite US military assurances. The 21-mile-long strait, which normally handles about 120 ships daily and supplies 20 percent of global oil, has seen traffic nearly frozen for two months. Insurance firms have refused to cover war-related losses, sharply increasing financial risks.

Iran has announced the creation of the 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' to regulate tolls and navigation, a move the US rejects as illegal. According to the International Maritime Organization, 32 ships have been hit by missiles since the conflict began, resulting in 10 deaths.